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The bitcoin thread.

Discussion in 'Off-Topic Discussion' started by jokerthief, Dec 26, 2016.

  1. jokerthief

    jokerthief No reason to get excited. Site Donor

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    I can confirm that this is the truth.
     
  2. Tapout

    Tapout Bringing Sexy Back Site Donor

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    Like how much of your work paycheck % wise do you invest back into bitcoin
     
  3. jokerthief

    jokerthief No reason to get excited. Site Donor

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    The fork was cancelled. This is a very complicated subject. I'll try to find some time in the next few days to give you a run down on the two sides of the scaling debate. But for now, there will be no fork.
    --- Post Added -- Nov 15, 2017, ---
    For the last year and a half I've been investing 100% of whatever I didn't spend each month into bitcoin. And I also converted my entire investment portfolio into bitcoin as well.

    But now I am accumulating cash. The price of bitcoin has risen so much that I can only increase my bitcoin holdings by a fraction of a percent each month. So it's not really possible to significantly increase my bitcoin holdings now. So I'm accumulating cash to give me a nice risk-free buffer I can fall back on in case I have to wait longer than I'm currently expecting to wait for bitcoin to mature. I want to reinvest some money into my business too, and I'm loath to cash out bitcoin for that. It is hard as hell to sell bitcoin after watching it go up 10X in the last year.
    --- Post Added -- Nov 15, 2017, ---
    FWIW, I have an extremely high risk-tolerance. Some people would call what I did the last year and a half as reckless, but in my mind, if I were to lose everything, it wouldn't be a big deal because I could easily rebuild. Not to the same level, but that's worth risking to make huge gains IMO.
     
    Tapout likes this.
  4. Walter Sobchak

    Walter Sobchak Crank some Frank!

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    I thought joker was not posting here anymore? Joker?
    --- Post Added -- Nov 15, 2017, ---
    Ohhh wait I see
     
  5. jokerthief

    jokerthief No reason to get excited. Site Donor

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    The issue I had got resolved. Plus, this thread has only just begun. It's going to be the most important thread on the forum within a few years. These are dangerous waters, and I don't want to see anyone here get hurt, so I'm going to try to debunk as much bullshit as I can to help you all navigate these waters successfully.
     
    TriangleSmoke, Tapout and Poindexter like this.
  6. Palma

    Palma I am chaos

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    Are you going to buy any bitcoin cash?
     
  7. Walter Sobchak

    Walter Sobchak Crank some Frank!

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    So should I invest 10 grand into this?
     
  8. jokerthief

    jokerthief No reason to get excited. Site Donor

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    Fuck no! I sold all of the bitcoin cash I got from the fork. Bitcoin cash will go to near zero in the end. Right now, a bunch or rich holders are manipulating the price of Bcash, which is an attack on the bitcoin network. It's a foolish attack, which I'll get into deeper when I make the post outlining the scaling debate. A good metaphor about what's happening right now is that bitcoin is about killing ALL the kings. It's a killing-all-the-kings movement. But there are a few Little Fingers out there saying, "Chaos is a ladder," who are trying to use this movement to become kings themselves. It's stupid and these people are delusional and their efforts are failing miserably (though somewhat slowly).

    It's going to be a rough three months for Bcash ahead. Most of the supply of Bcash is not accessible to its owners right now. Most people keep their bitcoin on exchanges and many exchanges (including the biggest, coinbase) have not given their customers their bcash yet. Today, Bitmex announced that it's going to sell all of the bcash it holds for its customers and convert it into bitcoin. https://blog.bitmex.com/bitcoin-cash-futures-now-live/

    January 1st, coinbase is going to release all the bcash to its customers. Then there will be a tsunami of bcash supply hitting the market that will mostly be flowing into bitcoin. I bet we'll see 10K bitcoin by March and sub 200 bcash by that same time. Then I think bcash will slowly bleed down to $20-50.

    Bcash has no long term scaling solution and no developer talent. It is trying to centralize bitcoin, which goes against the whole point of cryptocurrency. It's fools gold. Unfortunately, the Koreans are a bunch of degenerate gamblers who don't understand shit about cryptocurrency. So Roger Ver, Jihan Wu and all the other scumbags are succeeding in the short term in tricking them into pumping bcash. But all those Korean morons are going to lose their ass to the crafty Western cryptotraders who are just waiting to devour their stupid trades. Once the Koreans learn their lesson, and the massive wall of bcash finally hits the market from the exchanges, bcash will be renamed bcrash.
     
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  9. KevoIsAPoopyHead

    KevoIsAPoopyHead SMOKE BOMB!

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    I don't have the kind of liquidity to buy a bunch of bit coins. But I think I might take a chunk of my Christmas bonus and buy, half a bit coin? Maybe less than that.
     
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  10. jokerthief

    jokerthief No reason to get excited. Site Donor

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    I havn't forgotten you Walter, but this is a complicated question, so I'll need time to address it. I'm finishing up my last seminar of the month tonight, so maybe later tonight I'll write something up.
     
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  11. ILJO

    ILJO Mississippi Girl Site Donor

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    There's more important things than money, bro. Get a grip.
     
  12. jokerthief

    jokerthief No reason to get excited. Site Donor

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    You'll have to answer that for yourself. But, I will give you three scenarios with what I think are realistic probabilities. Ask yourself how well you would be able to live with yourself in each scenarios if, 1) you invest, and 2) if you DON'T invest.

    Scenario 1: probability 33.33%. Bitcoin goes to zero in next 12 years.

    Scenario 2: probability 33.33%. Bitcoin becomes a minor asset class and price goes to $100,000—$500,000.

    Scenario 3: probability 33.33%. Bitcoin becomes a major asset class and price goes to $1,000,000—$10,000,000.

    Notice there is a price gap between scenario #2 and #3. I don't think bitcoin will ever sit at 700K. If it goes to 500K, it will go to a million IMO.

    Now how do I get these numbers? First you have to understand the size of various asset classes out there. Let's look at that in the following png.



    So what assets does bitcoin have the ability to siphon value from?

    IMO: 1. Gold: 7.7 trillion. 2. Global broad money supply: 90.4 trillion. 3. Global Stocks: 73 trillion. 4. Global Debt: 215 trillion. 5. Global real estate 217 trillion. For a total of 603.1 trillion.

    Now we have to estimate bitcoin supply. In 12 years there will be about 20.33 million bitcoins. So to reach $100,000 a bitcoin, bitcoin must reach a market cap of just over 2 trillion or about 1/3rd of a percent of 603.1 trillion.

    But it's not that simple. First, it is estimated that there are between 1 and 3 million bitcoins lost right now. Second, there is good reason to believe that the one million bitcoins that Satoshi Nakamoto has will never be moved, meaning they are not in the supply pool. Third, more bitcoins will be lost in 12 years. If someone has 50 bitcoins encrypted and hasn't told anyone about and dies, those coins will be forever lost. So we could very well see a couple more million coins lost over the next 12 years. Fourth, the culture of the current long-term bitcoin holders is to hold the fuck on to the coins and not spend them.

    So the actual supply that is available on the market is much, much less than the 16.6 million bitcoins that are out there now. Even if we subtract Satoshi's coins and 3 million lost coins, there are still way fewer than 12.6 million coins available now because very few holders would be willing to sell at these prices.

    So at $100,000 a coin, the true supply may only be a few million. As the price increases the supply will loosen, but even at $1,000,000 per coin, the supply may only be 6-10 million, not 16.6 million we have now. Bitcoin holders have culture of thrift and savings. It's a whole new way of thinking.

    So a million dollar bitcoin may only require a market cap of ten trillion dollars, or 1.65% of the total assets I listed earlier. Or if I'm way off on my locked-up-supply theory, then it's only about 3% of the total assets. It's really not that hard to envision a million dollar bitcoin.
    --- Post Added -- Nov 18, 2017 at 7:43 PM, ---
    Another thing to consider is that there will only ever be 21 million bitcoins mined. There are about 30-million millionaires in the world right now. So not every millionaire that exists right now could own a full bitcoin. Man, when the institutional money starts to flow into bitcoin, holy shit. That's all I can say.
     
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