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Discussion in 'Off-Topic Discussion' started by jokerthief, Dec 26, 2016.
I'm guessing it looks something like this:
I have to admit I shorted the market, and bought back in with money I made from buying in October and selling last month. I needed the money, but I believe in it.
Poin, you still want me to do that with your favorite pacifier eh ? I don’t get why you like ass to mouth so much. That thing must taste shitty
Worries Grow That the Price of Bitcoin Is Being Propped Up
The technicals are on the verge of going bearish again. We're going further down if that's the case and it could get ugly. There are three support levels right now: 1. 5000 is weak support. 2. 3000 is weak support. 3. 1300 is very strong support. So if we go bearish, the next stop is 5000. If we go there, there will only be 50% chance that will hold. If it doesn't, 3000 is the next stop. Same story there 50% chance of holding there. If it doesn't, then we will go to 1300 and that will hold.
So now we're talking about a long-term bear market and this is what separates the men from the boys. Don't get into bitcoin now unless you understand the fundamental value of it. I will be buying during this time because I do understand the fundamental value of bitcoin and I'm prepared to hold for 10 years. If you're in this to get rich quick, you ought to rethink things. If you can't be patient, this is not the game for you.
Now, with all of that said, a serious bear market is a great opportunity for those who understand the fundamental value of bitcoin. It's not too late to get cheap bitcoin. If you don't have a lot of bitcoin, you should be rooting for a crash to 1300.
We've definitely gone long-term bearish. So don't expect a quick re-capture of the all time high. We may not do that this year. We very well could stagnate for a while before we bottom and then stagnate again a while before we enter the bull market that will eventually get us back to all time highs. This is very good news for those of you who don't own very many bitcoin. It looks like accumulation of significant amounts of bitcoin is back on the table.
So what is a significant amount of bitcoin? I'd say anything over one whole bitcoin is a significant amount. There will only ever be 21 million bitcoins and it is estimated that 4 million are already lost. So if you own one bitcoin, you have 1 in 17,000,000 of all the bitcoin wealth in the world. Probably only one in a few to several hundred-thousand people will ever own that much bitcoin.
So when do we get nervous that bitcoin is not just a bear market, but a failure? I'd say if bitcoin ever goes below 1,100, it would be a very bad sign. That was the last all time high when it corrected down to 155 before launching into this last bull run. Typically, bubbles that fail don't ever go on big parabolic moves, crash, recover, and then go to new heights. Bitcoin has done this about 3-4 times. The sign that a bubble-asset will fail is when it falls below the previous all time high, so for bitcoin this would be around 1100. If bitcoin falls to 1300, then all that means is that on the longer-term picture, it has gained about 20%. Sure, it inflated way up, but it still corrected to 20% higher than the previous all time high. That is still how a (volatile) bullish asset behaves.
So if you're curious about bitcoin, but aren't quite sure if you believe in it yet. You could sit tight, accumulate cash in anticipation to invest, and just watch the price. We have three price levels from where we could bounce: 5000, 3000, and 1300. So watch the price, if we bounce strongly off of one of those targets and then hang above it for a couple of weeks, it would be a good sign that it's safe to invest. If we fall below 1,100, you can be reasonably certain bitcoin will fail.
So if bitcoin drops below $1,100 jump the fuck out and sell?
Yes. I'll probably wouldn't sell though. Or at I'd at least hold on until it drops below 800. But from a technical analysis standpoint, if it dips below 1100, there is a very good chance that bitcoin has failed.
--- Post Added -- Feb 5, 2018, ---
I just realized I should probably clear something up. When I say that support levels are 5000, 3000, and 1300, that means that if we breach one of those levels, then the next lower level is support. And by support, I mean that somewhere above that level is where the bottom will come in. So we just destroyed 7500 support. Now 5000 (or more maybe 5400) is the support. So now we could bounce at 6400, or 6000, or 5800, but if we fall to 5400, then we're not going to bottom there. We will go lower. Then the next level of support is 3000. So then we could bottom at 4000, 4500, 3500, etc.
--- Post Added -- Feb 5, 2018, ---
A lot happened today. We have potentially bottomed again. We'll see if it will hold this time. This bottom was significantly more bullish than last time, however. We dipped down to 5900 (which is a great number) and then we rocketed up to 7900 very quickly. And on the one hour charts, the volume of the hour candle that came after the bottom was very heavy, which is a very bullish sign. The last bottom at 7600 had very weak volume on the one hour candle after the bottom. So this bottom is looking better than last time, which means it's more likely to hold. Now a couple of things can happen if this bottom holds. We could start to break out over the next couple of days and get into the 9000 range. Or we could make a new secondary low (somewhere between 6500-7000) before breaking out to the upside. If we dip below 6000, we're going way lower again.
This all coincided with some really good news from the US Government. There was a Senate Committee meeting today and the CFTC chairman and the SEC chairman basically outlined the US Government's intention to take a do-no-harm approach to bitcoin. The one thing the Government is going to do is start to crack down on ICOs, which will be good for bitcoin IMO.
Here's a clip of CFTC chairman Chris Giancarlo being very bullish:
To me that was the big story of the day. If the US Government is going to be friendly to bitcoin, that is beyond huge.
That's always been my biggest concern
Someone bought 400 mil worth yesterday. May be another pump coming. It is still steadily gaining more and more exposure while being accepted by more people and businesses as a form of payment. I am confident it will soar once again this year.
Although I wish I had the balls to buy more when it was down, I once again did not. I’ve bought on a real dip one time back in sept/oct (China ban) and that’s cause I had it to lose. I have passed the point of a loss I could easily stomach. Shit is just scary no matter how much I believe it will succeed. Maybe if and when I take a nice profit off the table, I will feel fine buying when it’s raining red once again.
I am, however, picking up a bit more at current prices. Made the decision last night while it was at 10k. Woke up today and it was at 11k+. I plan on holding what I had prior to this for the long run. Whatever I buy right now is to sell if and when the prices hit the 40-50k range.
I am still confident that will happen this year. This is still only the beginning. If not for the tech do I believe in, it’s human greed. There’s still a massive amount of fortune to gain from fueling and riding the bitcoin trend and the forces that be to profit from peoples dreams such as I. There’s still billions of people that don’t even know what it is yet and haven’t been sold.
This is one the best bitcoin videos I've ever seen. Lee makes the case for Millennials driving up the price to 10 million. 1-5 has always been in my mind, but it's interesting to hear ten million. I intuited that it was possible, but it's hard to wrap the mind around such a big number.
Right now about 55% of me thinks that we're in a consolidation mode in the market right now and that we'll hover around the 10-11K mark for a while before turning bullish again. About 45% of me thinks we two months into a 12-14 month bear market. We may drop down to 3K or maybe even 1300 before the next massive bull-run happens. I don't know which to root for. If we're in the bear market, then it means I'm going to get richer in terms of bitcoin. But I'd like to buy a million dollar mansion; and I already have a lot of bitcoin, so I wouldn't be sad if bitcoin mooned sooner rather than later.
If I were you guys, I'd be rooting for the bear market, if you haven't accumulated much bitcoin yet, that is. That would be the greatest circumstance for anyone who still needs to accumulate bitcoin. But that means that you have to actually educate yourself in the meantime so that you will actually buy during this time. Tick-tock motherfuckers. This is the opportunity of a lifetime. Jump on it now, while you still can. If the uncertainty of the market is keeping you from making a decision, look up dollar cost averaging and start doing that. I'm actually sitting on a little bit of cash right now and I may dollar cost average my way in with that money.
Technicals are looking like they may go bearish again. But the bottom will be hard to predict because we did bounce very nicely off of 5900 and have maintained above that for a couple of weeks now. So the next bottom might be 9000 or 8000 or 7000. Keep an eye out if we go below 6000, that would mean we're getting into double-bottom territory again; remember double-bottom's don't exist, so if we get that low, we're going below 5900. There are three strong support levels below that. The first is 5000, the next is 3000, and the last is 1300.
Now what happens if we dip to 1300? We need to put this in perspective. If we were to do this in, say, April, Bitcoin would be up 30% in 16 months. That's still a long-term bull market. And if you go back even further, say six years, bitcoin is still averaging 132% per year. This is the kind of volatility you have to be able to stomach with bitcoin. Bitcoin has had three major bear markets before this one. The first bear market was when bitcoin first got up to 30 and then dropped to 2. That was a 93% drop. The second was when bitcoin got up to 230 and dropped to 68. That was a 70% drop. The last one was when bitcoin went up to 1147 and dropped to 177, an 85% drop. But do you see a pattern here? Massive run ups and then massive corrections followed by another massive run up. Scams, ponzis, and bubbles DON'T behave this way. They will run up once, collapse, and stay collapsed. Bitcoin has been going through this cycle for 9 years now. This shows me it is an antifragile asset class.
This crash, from 20K to 5900, was a 70% correction. I'd say there is a 65% chance that either that or the next support level, 5000, holds. But I'm prepared to hold all the way down to 1300, which may have a 20% chance of happening.
--- Post Added -- Feb 26, 2018, ---
The key number to watch out for is 7000. If we can keep above 7000, we may be in the third wave of a hyperwave, looking to enter wave four. When that happens, we'll shoot to 100-150K within 14 months. What a wild fucking ride.
--- Post Added -- Feb 26, 2018, ---
Today was a crazy day. We're up about 8.5% as I write this. The reason why this is so crazy is because yesterday's 1-day chart candle was extremely bearish looking and all technical analysis theories would say that it was a strong indication of the beginning of another bear trend. Today we've gotten an extremely bullish candle, which has probably surprised the hell out of most technical analysts out there. We may have dodged a huge bullet. No one knows what's going on though. Some wild shit is going on with the price lately. A lot of low-probability events are happening.
--- Post Added -- Feb 26, 2018, ---
I have not invested in Bitcoin, but I do know a few that have. What I find confusing is how this is being handled on taxes. It sounds like the government considers Bitcoin property? (Not a currency or even a stock?) You have to pay a sales tax when you buy? But someone said if you got in at a certain low point a few years ago you don't have to pay the sales tax? How are they handling the selling of it? 20% for taxes or something like that is what another person said to me. All just confusing as hell. Thank god I don't have to do any of those guys taxes.
It's taxed like stocks. You pay capital gains.
Bill Gates says cryptocurrencies have “caused deaths in a fairly direct way”
Gates says cryptocurrencies’ main feature is anonymity.
Watch the price today. 11,100 is an area of significant resistance. We're at 11,200 as I write this. If we can close the day (5:00 pm Eastern time tomorrow) above 11,100, it will be a very bullish sign. We closed yesterday (a few hours ago) above 11,000, but couldn't quite crack 11,100. I expected to open the day downward below 11,000, but instead we've breached the 11,100 resistance level. I'm going to be following the price very closely the rest of the night and tomorrow.
I think it's pretty safe to say now that the technicals are very bullish for bitcoin. The weekly candle ended really strong. The daily candles have just completed a cup and handle pattern, which indicates that we should see a 5K move upward very soon. So I expect we'll get up to the 16-16.5K range within a couple of months. So if you haven't bought yet, I'd do it asap. We've probably bottomed for the year.